Copia di The West in Early 2025

2025: Reflections and Opinions on Developments in the Western World

What stands out immediately? Undeniably, since the end of 2024, little has fundamentally changed. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, alongside tensions involving other Middle Eastern countries (yes, there is still a tenuous agreement with Hezbollah and no open war with other states), persists, resulting in mounting casualties and devastation. Recently, Israeli raids in the West Bank have led to the deaths of at least three Palestinians affiliated with a terrorist cell. Meanwhile, newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has advocated for the release of hostages to avert Marine intervention, a priority from his first day in office. Russian aggression under Putin continues, while Ukraine under Zelensky appears increasingly adrift, with public confidence in the president dropping to 52%. The cessation of revenues from the 2019 Russia-Gazprom transit agreement at the end of 2024 has inflicted significant economic losses—$5 billion annually for Russia and Gazprom and $800 million for Ukraine. The European Union remains committed to finding alternatives to Russian gas, which has been an ongoing struggle for three years. Progress has been partially hindered by resistance from Hungary and Slovakia, which often oppose European policies, particularly those driven by socialist parties. Global Crises Tragedies elsewhere—such as the displacement of over 12 million in Sudan and the humanitarian crises in Haiti and Syria—paint a grim picture of international stability. In Haiti, clashes between the government and gangs persist despite Kenyan mediation. In Syria, hopes for change under the new "Free Syria" leadership have dimmed after it refused to engage with the German special envoy. Myanmar and other crises warrant detailed analysis, which I aim to provide in the coming days. Europe: A Stagnant Landscape As a union, Europe continues its trend of inaction and submission to global challenges. Politically, it faces a period of transformation (some might argue regression). In Austria, the far-right FPÖ led by Kickl appears poised for government. In Germany, Scholz has announced elections, with the AfD polling at around 20%. France sees Macron under pressure, with his new Prime Minister François Bayrou, facing opposition from the Rassemblement National and Mélenchon's far-left coalition. In Romania, the Constitutional Court shocked the nation by annulling the first-round election results. Outsider Călin Georgescu led with 22.9%, followed by Elena Lasconi (19.18%) and Marcel Ciolacu (19.15%). Lasconi and Ciolacu are now forming an anti-extremist coalition for the May 2025 elections. Meanwhile, Italy appears more stable: Giorgia Meloni has consolidated her power, enhancing Italy's international standing with notable diplomatic successes, such as securing the release of journalist Cecilia Sala from Iran. Economic and Internal Challenges Economically, the situation remains critical. The European Central Bank maintains high interest rates, exacerbating inflation. The new von der Leyen-led European Commission struggles to gain momentum or popular support. Economic engines like Germany face identity and sectoral crises, particularly in automotive and banking. Simultaneously, Trump's U.S., with its protectionist policies and tariffs, adds further pressure.

The 2019 "Report: The Future of European Competitiveness" by Mario Draghi underscores the need for greater economic self-sufficiency, emphasizing investment in key sectors, innovation, and the potential establishment of a unified European army despite resistance to surrendering sovereignty. While the report diagnoses the challenges accurately, it lacks revolutionary solutions, highlighting the need for decisive change. Europe must overcome its inertia by fostering political stability, driving economic innovation, and asserting greater independence in global decision-making. The new European Commission and High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, have an opportunity to deliver the necessary momentum. USA: The Return of Trump Trump's election heralds a return to protectionist and aggressive policies, with promises of tariffs, deportations of undocumented immigrants, and an end to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Key factors behind this victory include: 1. Strategic Communication and Youth Engagement - Trump secured significant support among young voters through a robust social media presence and backing from influencers, such as prominent YouTubers and podcasters. A Pew Research Poll indicates that two-thirds of adults aged 18–29 listened to podcasts last year, with nearly half doing so weekly. Discussions on economic and employment issues framed Trump as a pragmatic leader addressing their concerns. 2. Policy Focus - Trump prioritized employment, immigration, and security—issues central to American voters. Ipsos data reveals that 37% of Americans view employment as their top concern, followed by immigration (28%) and political extremism (25%). His promises resonated in these areas. 3. Demographic Dynamics - Surprisingly, Trump gained traction among Hispanic and other ethnic minority voters by emphasizing economic and job security. Although he faced setbacks among young women (61%-38%), strong support from men, particularly Hispanic men, compensated for the loss. 4. Democratic Challenges - Kamala Harris's campaign, emphasizing inclusivity and rights such as abortion access, failed to address more immediate voter concerns like unemployment and immigration. 5. Influence of Key Figures - Along with strategists like Susie Wiles and JD Vance, Elon Musk's involvement bolstered Trump's image as a decisive and innovative leader. Musk's role as head of the newly established Department of Efficiency highlights this focus. 6. Resilience Amid Scandals - Despite controversies, Trump capitalized on public disillusionment with traditional systems. Voters prioritized proposed solutions over personal scandals. Trump's victory underscores a shift in American priorities, challenging Democrats to realign their strategy toward more pressing concerns. Under his leadership, the U.S. will likely adopt a more isolationist and conservative stance, with profound implications for global geopolitics.

Abstract

This study analyzes the main political, economic, and social challenges faced by the Western world and Europe, particularly at the beginning of 2025. Through a thematic analysis based on recent data and authoritative sources, the paper explores the implications of political changes, such as Donald Trump's victory in the United States and the rise of extremist parties in Europe, while assessing their impact on global dynamics and internal policies. It provides an overview of international crises, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the war in Ukraine, examining the role of the European Union and the United States in an increasingly polarized world. Moreover, it incorporates insights on other global crises in Sudan, Haiti, and Syria and an analysis of energy dependency and economic policy challenges in Europe.

Introduction

The Western world, transitioning between 2024 and 2025, confronts a geopolitical context marked by significant instability and political transformations. In Europe, economic crises and the rise of extremist parties raise questions about the future of the European Union. Donald Trump's election in the United States signals a return to protectionist policies, influencing global balances. These dynamics add to persistent crises in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, which demand coordinated political responses. This paper aims to analyze the primary challenges characterizing the Western landscape in 2025, with particular attention to the roles of Europe and the United States. Additionally, the study expands its focus to consider the broader implications of humanitarian crises and regional instabilities in other parts of the world.

Methodology

The analysis is based on a critical review of secondary sources, including academic research, international reports, opinion polls, and recent news. Sources such as Mario Draghi's "Report: The Future of European Competitiveness" and Ipsos surveys," Ipsos surveys, and data on global crises were used to identify key economic, political, and social trends. The methodological approach is qualitative, focusing on contextualizing the dynamics analyzed. Particular attention is given to cross-referencing data from diverse regions to ensure a comprehensive understanding of interconnected global issues.

Overview

The European Context Europe in 2025 finds itself in a transitional phase characterized by political instability and economic challenges.

Key developments include:

The rise of extremist parties: In Austria, the FPÖ has gained traction under Herbert Kickl's leadership. In Germany, the AFD has reached 20% in polls, signaling increased skepticism toward mainstream policies. France's political environment remains volatile, with President Macron's difficulties further destabilized by the influence of opposition forces.

Economic crisis: The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains high interest rates to control inflation, exacerbating difficulties in key industrial sectors, such as the automotive industry in Germany.

Unstable leadership: Countries like France, with President Macron increasingly isolated, and Romania, with controversial decisions by the constitutional court, contribute to a fragmented political landscape and banking instability in several EU nations. These challenges are compounded by a lack of cohesive energy policies, particularly with ongoing reliance on Russian energy supplies despite diversifying efforts.

The United States: Elections and International Policies

Donald Trump's election in 2024 represents a return to conservative and protectionist policies. The main topics analyzed include:

Domestic policies: Tax reductions, deregulation, and restrictive immigration measures, coupled with an aggressive approach toward historical U.S. partners. Trump's administration has also proposed tariffs on European goods, further straining transatlantic relations.

Foreign policies: Promises to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with an economic pressure strategy on China and North Korea. However, these goals are accompanied by an isolationist stance that could leave unresolved global challenges.

Sociocultural factors: Trump's campaign leveraged a young and disillusioned electorate supported by influencers and social media content creators. Pew Research indicates that 66% of young Americans engaged with such content during the election cycle, signaling a shift in political communication strategies.

Global Challenges

International tensions continue to define the global landscape: The Middle East: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensifies, while Iran assumes an increasingly central role in escalating violence in Gaza and the West Bank. The U.S. administration's alignment with Israel has polarized international responses. Africa and Asia: In Sudan, 12 million displaced individuals face famine and violence. Political turmoil in Myanmar and tensions in Taiwan threaten regional stability. Meanwhile, Haiti's enduring struggle against gang violence highlights the international community's limited capacity to mediate effectively.

Energy and climate: Europe's reliance on external energy sources remains a critical issue, complicating the implementation of sustainable policies, as ongoing tensions with Russia disrupt supply chains. Efforts to transition to sustainable energy have faced resistance from member states like Hungary and Slovakia, further complicating the EU's energy diversification.

Discussion

Europe and the United States face distinct but interconnected challenges. The European Union must develop a unified strategy to address economic crises and internal political instability, while the United States appears to lean toward isolationism, potentially impacting global dynamics. The lack of international coordination exacerbates the management of global crises, leaving a void that emerging powers such as China and India could fill. The implications of Trump's policy shifts, particularly regarding trade and international relations, further complicate Europe's ability to navigate its energy and economic challenges. Meanwhile, unresolved Middle East and Africa conflicts threaten global security and underscore the need for a collaborative international approach.

Conclusions and Recommendations

In conclusion, 2025 emerges as a pivotal year for the Western world. Europe must overcome its current impasse through innovative economic policies and greater political cohesion. The United States, on the other hand, should balance its domestic policies with a more inclusive international strategy. Greater multilateral engagement is essential to address global challenges, from climate change to humanitarian crises. Future studies could delve deeper into the implications of 2025's political decisions on long term geopolitical dynamics. Furthermore, there is a pressing need for Europe to assert its independence in energy and defense strategies while strengthening diplomatic ties to address regional instabilities.

References

• Draghi, M. (2024). The future of European competitiveness. https://commission.europa.eu/document/ download/ec1409c1-d4b4-4882-8bdd 3519f86bbb92_en?filename=The%20futu 2re%20of%20European%20competitivene ss_%20In depth%20analysis%20and%20recomme ndations_0.pdf

• Ipsos. (2024). Reuters/Ipsos Issues Survey: December 2024. https://www.ipsos.com/en us/reutersipsos-issues-survey-december 2024

• Pew Research Center. (2023). Podcast Use Among Different Age Groups. https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/ 2023/04/18/podcast-use-among different-age-groups/

• https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/ analysis/the-demographics-that-flipped for-trump-young-men-working-class-and

• Il Sole 24 Ore – Ed. Mercoeldì, 8 Gennaio 2025.

• https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/n ov24midwestpennpoll.php