An Almost Impossible Agreement: UE-MERCOSUR

Policy Communication_UE_Mercosur.pdf

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The EU and Mercosur have struggled for years, with multiple negotiations, blocks, and restarts. Although an agreement once seemed imminent, recent changes in the European Commission and Parliament's spheres of influence, along with some countries' indecision, have disrupted progress again.

The EU and Mercosur reached an agreement in 2024 and advanced in 2025. Now, even though the Text did not change, Countries and the EU Parliament are demanding crucial additional measures to defend and secure EU consumers and producers.

The Agreement is expected to be signed in early 2026, though additional delays are likely. Prior to this, the EU Council and Parliament reached an agreement on provisional safeguards to reassure skeptical Member States and MEPs.

France, Poland, Hungary, and Austria are the hardest negotiators now. Some LATAM countries, especially Brazil, are growing tired of the EU's indecisiveness.

This policy brief examines the EU–Mercosur agreement not only as a trade deal, but as a complex case study in political decision-making and strategic communication. It explores how targeted safeguards, clear implementation timelines, and coordinated engagement with policymakers, stakeholders, and the public are essential to build consensus and legitimacy. In doing so, it highlights the importance of balancing economic openness with political sustainability.

Ultimately, the EU–Mercosur agreement illustrates a broader challenge facing contemporary trade policy: how to reconcile global ambition with domestic accountability. Its success will depend less on the scale of the agreement itself, and more on the capacity of European institutions to design credible protections, manage stakeholder concerns, and communicate a clear, evidence-based vision for the future of EU trade.